Scan #074: Eight bets on the plumbing — insurance IPOs, e-fuel, and the US infrastructure supercycle

Scan #074 picks two themes: the 2021-vintage insurtech class finally reaching the public market (Ethos), and the US building-materials and midstream supercycle (Simon, EPD, CRH) hitting cycle highs on infrastructure spending the country committed to three years ago. Four emerging companies face four established ones — insurance twice, energy twice, retail/construction/logistics/supply chain once each.

Ethos Technologies — Insurance · Emerging. Only 2021-vintage insurtech to reach the public market without an obvious down-round zombie profile. Nasdaq debut January 2026 at $19 and ~$1.3B valuation, half its 2021 private peak but still a win in a vintage defined by Lemonade, Root, Hippo and Metromile trading well below IPO. H1 2025 revenue grew 55% YoY to $82.5M annualized. The open question: can the AI underwriting engine stay defensible once Munich Re and the other reinsurers decide to ship a competing API?

Shipwell — Logistics · Emerging. Austin TMS celebrated its 10-year anniversary in October with an "agentic supply chain" rebrand. $116M raised across five rounds, last valued ~$290M in 2022, no new round in three years. Industry trackers put 2024-2025 ARR in the $25-35M range. Sits sandwiched between SAP/Oracle at the top, project44/FourKites in visibility, and 3PLs bundling free TMS at the bottom — a structural squeeze that tightens every quarter. The open question: whether the agentic AI layer can push gross dollar retention above 115% or whether this becomes a trade-sale waiting to happen.

Twelve (Twelve Benefit Corporation) — Energy · Emerging. Berkeley climate-tech company's AirPlant One in Moses Lake, Washington, began producing commercial e-SAF in 2026 — the first US commercial-scale plant converting captured CO2 and electricity into drop-in jet fuel. $645M funding package led by TPG Rise Climate in September 2024. Offtake deals with Alaska Airlines, Microsoft, IAG and Shopify total more than $1B over 10-15-year terms. The open question: can the company scale 25-50x from pilot before the IRA 45Z credit politics turn and cheaper e-SAF pathways catch up?

Exotec — Supply chain · Emerging. France's first industrial unicorn after a $335M Series D at a $2B valuation in January 2022. By early 2024 had crossed $1B in cumulative systems sold; by October 2025, 10,000+ Skypod robots deployed across Carrefour, Decathlon, Gap, Uniqlo, Geodis and PepsiCo. Skypod goods-to-person throughputs reach 600 lines per hour per picker — roughly 2x conventional cube automation. The open question: can modular robotics retain a performance edge as AutoStore ships taller cube systems and Hai Robotics and Geek+ price 20-40% lower on comparable throughput?

Simon Property Group — Retail · Well-positioned. The mall-apocalypse thesis is losing. Q3 2026 occupancy hit 96.5%, the highest since 2016; sales per square foot reached $740; FFO guidance raised to $13.30-$13.40. Simon completed its full takeover of Taubman Centers (acquiring the remaining 20% stake), closed on $250M in luxury redevelopments at Nashville, Denver and Tampa, and continued running its unusual Sparc Group / Authentic Brands joint venture that owns Aéropostale, Brooks Brothers, Lucky Brand, Forever 21 and JCPenney. The real risk sits with succession: David Simon is 65, no formal successor named.

AXA SA — Insurance · Well-positioned. FY2025 revenue €113B, net income €4.5B, Solvency II ratio above 220%, and a Thomas Buberl reappointment through 2030. AXA has executed the cleanest post-financial-crisis repositioning in European insurance: divested US life (2018-2020), sold AXA Investment Managers to BNP Paribas (2024-2026), and refocused on European retail P&C, Asian life and AXA XL commercial. The one specific concern: AXA XL Re is exposed to a softening reinsurance market, and divesting AXA IM reduces the highest-multiple business line.

Enterprise Products Partners — Energy · Well-positioned. America's largest midstream MLP — 50,000+ miles of pipeline, 300M barrels of storage, and the integrated Permian-to-Mont Belvieu-to-Gulf NGL system. Q3 2026 revenue $17.9B, adjusted EBITDA up 16% YoY to record levels, and the 27th consecutive year of annual distribution increases. The SPOT (Sea Port Oil Terminal) deepwater crude-export project is in late permitting with $500M+ EBITDA at steady state. The Duncan family (through EPCO) still holds ~32% of common units. Co-CEOs Teague (76) and Fowler (65) remain in place — succession is the single question.

CRH plc — Construction · Well-positioned. The largest US building-materials company — bigger by revenue than Vulcan Materials and Martin Marietta combined. FY2025 revenue ~$35B, and FY2026 run-rate approaches $40B after closing the $8.5B Arcosa materials acquisition in September 2026 (35M additional tons of aggregates). The September 2023 primary-listing move from LSE to NYSE has permanently repriced the stock, up ~60% since. New CEO Jim Mintern's first major acquisition compounds exposure to the IIJA infrastructure cycle, the CHIPS Act fab buildout, and the hyperscale data-center concrete boom. The long-dated risk: cement carbon regulation and end of IIJA cycle in 2029-2031.